Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Kerry ahead in polling

UPDATE: This thing is still changing. As of 1:30 Central time, Bush has the electoral college win, but not the popular vote. Just check it!

I've been checking this polling data meta-graph periodically over the last couple weeks, and lo and behold this morning for the first time it shows Kerry narrowly ahead in the popular vote and decisively ahead in the electoral college.

http://www.unc.edu/~jstimson/heats.htm

The guy who generates this uses all kinds of statistical methods to essentially combine all the major tracking polls (Gallup, Rasmussen, the networks and papers, etc.) into one big graph, so I think it's a useful way to cut through the clutter of all the competing polls.
Of course, there's still the matter of actually voting...