78th Oscars: gitcher predictions rightcheer

OK, Snackers, y'all know how I loves me some pop culture. Oscar night is one of my favorite nights of the year, and since I can't have my annual Oscar party (just moved into a new house; not sufficiently unpacked), I thought I'd share my predictions with my extended Snacker family. Please note that in each of the last 5 years I've consistently predicted at least 15 of the winners correctly. So the pressure is on! I tend to make my calls in the more obscure/technical categories right at the last minute, but here are my picks for the major awards. Quibbling in comments is highly encouraged.

Best Picture
"Brokeback Mountain"
"Capote"
"Crash"
"Good Night, and Good Luck."
"Munich"

Yeah, it's going to be Brokeback. Anything else would be a pretty major upset. (Having said that, though, I do think this is one of the strongest sets of nominees in recent years. All of these films are really excellent.)

Best Director
Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"
Bennett Miller, "Capote"
Paul Haggis, "Crash"
George Clooney, "Good Night, and Good Luck."
Steven Spielberg, "Munich"

Lee, hands down. No one else combines his strong directorial vision with an ability to let the story speak for itself.

Best Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Capote"
Terrence Howard in "Hustle & Flow"
Heath Ledger in "Brokeback Mountain"
Joaquin Phoenix in "Walk the Line"
David Strathairn in "Good Night, and Good Luck."

Hoffman gave an amazing performance, and he's more than due to take home a statuette.

Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney in "Syriana"
Matt Dillon in "Crash"
Paul Giamatti in "Cinderella Man"
Jake Gyllenhaal in "Brokeback Mountain"
William Hurt in "A History of Violence"

This is a tough one to call. Most of the predictions are saying Clooney, in recognition of his banner year (and since he won't win in the other two categories). But my gut is saying that Dillon will be the surprise winner - Crash has been getting some good buzz and I think Clooney's three noms will split the voting and he'll come away with nothing.

Best Actress
Judi Dench in "Mrs. Henderson Presents"
Felicity Huffman in "Transamerica"
Keira Knightley in "Pride & Prejudice"
Charlize Theron in "North Country"
Reese Witherspoon in "Walk the Line"

This one is going to be close between Witherspoon and Huffman. I think Huffman probably gave the more difficult performance, but Reese's momentum is hard to beat, and her picture was just plain bigger. Plus, the academy is a sucker for actresses who do their own singing.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams in "Junebug"
Catherine Keener in "Capote"
Frances McDormand in "North Country"
Rachel Weisz in "The Constant Gardener"
Michelle Williams in "Brokeback Mountain"

Always a difficult category to predict. Odds are in favor of Rachel Weisz, who won both the Golden Globe and the SAG award for this performance. But Amy Adams has been getting some amazing press for Junebug and Michelle Williams could benefit from a Brokeback sweep. I'm going with Weisz, to spread the love.

Best Animated Feature
"Howl's Moving Castle"
"Tim Burton's Corpse Bride"
"Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit"

Yeah, this one's a no-brainer. Wallace and Gromit by a mile. You can't deny a freaking were-rabbit, people!

Best Foreign Language Film
"Don't Tell" (Italy)
"Joyeux Noël" (France)
"Paradise Now" (Palestine)
"Sophie Scholl - The Final Days" (Germany)
"Tsotsi" (South Africa)

As usual, I've been a bad movie slut and I haven't seen ANY of these. But, um, Tsotsi is fun to say. So, there you go.

Adapted Screenplay
"Brokeback Mountain" Screenplay by Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana
"Capote" Screenplay by Dan Futterman
"The Constant Gardener" Screenplay by Jeffrey Caine
"A History of Violence" Screenplay by Josh Olson
"Munich" Screenplay by Tony Kushner and Eric Roth

Chalk up another win for the gay cowboys. (And deservedly so; it ain't easy to translate a gorgeously written short story to the screen.)

Original Screeplay
"Crash" Screenplay by Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco
"Good Night, and Good Luck." Screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov
"Match Point" Written by Woody Allen
"The Squid and the Whale" Written by Noah Baumbach
"Syriana" Written by Stephen Gaghan

I'd really love it if Stephen Gaghan or Clooney would win this one, since I think both their scripts were far more nuanced and complex than Crash. But Crash has the buzz and the emotional impact that voters tend to reward.

OK. There you go. Feel free to post dissenting opinions, derision and sarcastic remarks in comments.