Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Don't Hold Your Breath

You can't listen to NPR or glance at a major newspaper these days without some journo going on about the imminent recommendations by the Iraq Study Group for cleaning up that giant mess. Honestly, you'd think it was motherfucking Snakes on a Plane.

To summarize David Kurtz at Talking Points Memo, don't hold your breath. He deflates four of the assumptions underlying the bipartisan (and Fourth Estate) optimism about the ISG:

(1) That the ISG recommendations will be substantive, well-founded, and more than mere political cover for a change of strategy yet to be unveiled. Perhaps they will be prudent recommendations, but I don't know why anyone would assume that yet.

(2) That the Administration will first embrace and then effectively implement the ISG recommendations. This assumption seems wildly at odds with this Administration's track record in both respects...

(3) That Bob Gates is going to make a dramatic difference over the next two years. First, I remember the last time we were promised wisdom, experience, and a steady hand from a member of Bush 41's old team. That was Dick Cheney...

(4) That things can't get any worse. Things can always get worse... The Middle East is Murphy's Law squared.

Regardless of what the brainiacs in the ISG propose, they oughta know that Bush is the Kevin Federline of contemporary politics: everything he touches turns to dross.